As the second-longest bull market in history makes its way into the ninth year, many investors are understandably ask: when to stop? We had a rich, if there is a foolproof method to find out. However, we can make some guesses.
One thing to remember is that the bull market is not old age to die alone. Something must kill them. And the most reliable weapon is economic recession. This is not always the case. There have been no bear market decline is the collapse of the 1987 program. But many of the most severe recession accompanied by a recession – or, more precisely, by one. The Great Recession began in December 2007, is a bear market in October of that year, ie before the beginning of the conversion price then in Lop Nur 57. Ť his recession began in March 2001, the peak of the market and then launched a 49% stock decline in March 2000.
Frequent false alarms, economist and market strategist Ed Yardeni Yardeni Research said. And proved to be correct -. “When the bear market in the next market is expected to start once the recession is expected to have a large number of market downturn since 2008 has proven to be buying opportunities,” Yardeni said.
When the recession and the stock market is doing on the mountain, they can do so immediately, with the start of the recession and bear market in July 1990, after more than a year can lollygag. On average, the stock market peak of 7.7 months after the recession began, according to market research firm Investment Technology
If we only know that the next recession will begin. So, Yardeni has a heart Date: March 2019, he was based on the average number of months after the economy continues to reach its previous peak, dating back to the early 1970s, expanding his determination. From November 2013, which is when the economy finally surpassed the 2007 pre-recession peak date, Yardeni arrive in March 2019.
The date is not official forecasts, Yardeni, who added that it comes with no guarantees, and that a large number of problems. “Then we today show that in March 2019 is a realistic date, or recession sooner or later, you know? Right now, in March ’19 modeling realistic,” Yardeni said. “But if pressed,” he added, “I would say it mayIt could be in the future. “If you insist on the economic cycle and if the average stock market has the same effect – whether it is a big” if “- then investors should be looking for a top of the market
The four signs of recession in the next year in August
Sam Stovall, chief investment strategy investment research firm CFRA, look at the four indicators, the recession on the horizon of his search. Stovall said that since 1960, every recession Housing starts decreased from previous years over the same period. these pits dropped from 10% to 37% decrease in range, they have an average of 25%. the latest report on housing starts showed that less than 3% decline. “Therefore, we yellow alarm, not red, “Stovall said.
Consumer confidence index is another signpost. before the recession kicked in, you will usually see the 9% average decline in Monte University of Michigan hemolysin climate index relative to the previous year Tovar Bies said current reading: up to 2.4%
In the six-month period leading economic indicators in the Conference Board’s drop meant trouble, also fell 3 .%, On average, ahead of the economic downturn in the last six months of registration changes: an increase of 3%
Finally, when the one-year note yields below the 10-year bond yields dipped – is called inverted yield curve -.. look out Stovall said worse, long-term interest rates has been under pressure recently, the Fed pushed short-term interest rates to rise, “we get a flat yield curve, but nowhere near the vicinity of the reverse,” Sri Lanka Tovar said his conclusion is: there is no recession in sight
Look at your risk of double-dip recession and bear market, consider a third risk – early exit in the last year of a bull market bull market the return is the history of generous return, including dividends, in the last six months, an average of the last 12 months, 25% and 16%.
Nevertheless, investors have every reason to be ascribed right at this stage Note level of the game. now is a good time to make sure your portfolio reflects your life stage, your risk tolerance. adhere to a regular schedule rebalancing, to lock in gains, and maintain stocks, bonds Other assets, an appropriate balance between home and abroad. Whatever you do, make sure your portfolio is that you want it to be summer vacation you goBefore next year.
